Excelerated Work
It’s like Apple Shortcuts for me: it’s not replacing my need to do anything, it’s making some things easier or quicker than they otherwise would be. When I push it to do everything, it falls down.
I’ve been thinking a lot lately about what exactly AI will turn out to be. Will it create an industry as broadly impactful on daily life as the iPhone did? Will become as ubiquitous yet unexciting as Dropbox? Or, will it, like Silicon Valley would prefer you to believe, be a fundamental paradigm shift for how the whole of human society functions, like the Internet was?
The answer is, of course, somewhere in the middle of that triangle. I’m going to place my bet, and we will see how it ages, on AI ending up like Microsoft Excel.
When Excel hit the market, the financial world erupted in a combination of panic and elation. This tool would fundamentally change how people would do their jobs, and accountants in particular came to fear that the software would entirely replace them1.
Excel did fundamentally change a vast many jobs and just about anyone with a desk job today uses it in one way or another, but Excel alone didn’t drive droves of people into homelessness. It did, however, make many tedious tasks much more efficient and therefore require fewer people to complete them.
I’m failing to find the source of this, but I read and article some years ago which harkened back to the industrialization of the early 20th century. The masses of workers feared that the efficiencies and automation of the assembly line would replace their labor nearly entirely2, while the less exploitative businesspeople heralded the coming of a much shorter work week. Their more exploitative counterparts were able to take advantage of both the new efficiencies these machines offered and the proletariat’s existing willingness to work many hours to extract far greater value than ever seen before.
This same process happened before, during the Industrial Revolution, and after, with computers and the Internet, and I suspect we are witnessing it happen again with AI.
Like before, I expect that AI will have a dramatic effect on the job market, but it will not usher in the an age where humans don’t work. Excel didn’t replace all the accountants, but companies did suddenly need fewer of them. In each of these cycles, workers are forced to adapt to the new environment, and the process gravely harms those who are unable or unwilling to change.
I don’t know if assembly lines or Microsoft or generative AI have been positive for humanity, but we’re stuck with them all now. We should remain wary as we adapt to our new surroundings, since this process has a tendency to funnel wealth upwards while the shit continues to roll downhill.